does this mean we really do have 516k accounts – no, not necessarily. all i am trying to say is that its less likely in my personal opinion that we only have 56k accounts – mod11 may be used for a checksum but not necessarily to dismiss 90% of accounts.
ape historian here.
intro – this isn’t financial advice and i am pretty smooth. but this isn’t my first time analyzing webpage performance so i would say i have half a wrinkle to pitch in here.
The thesis of this post comes from a reply to a comment around maximum drs numbers:
i am sharing here to raise awareness of that post (and a couple of others) and to foster a friendly discussion.
TLDR:I am unsure if we can use mod11 numbers to say that we have 56k total cs accounts (which may or may not hold 100% of gme, of course other cs accounts hold non gme stock as well).
by /u/stopfucking with me.
assuming mod11 is true, we should have 56k accounts in total. all these cs accounts would hold both gme and non gme stock. lets look at computershare site visits: https://www.similarweb.com/website/computershare.com/#overview
similar web shows 4.6 million visits in September and what looks like. note these numbers are estimates and not actual for the site – which is common with similarweb.
Another site visit comparator: https://sitechecker.pro/app/main/traffic-checker-land?pageUrl=Computershare.com
lets look at September numbers:
a definitey uptick in viists – looks like 32% increase from last month – this is for september.
last month was august and 3.5M visits. september is 4.6M. so 1.1 million new visits.
+45% traffic in usa alone.
shows a steady number of visits with a starting increase around september time…
potential evidence that at least a small percentage of those are DEFINITELY apes:
top organic keywords – COMPUSHARE. now who is going to even google that? thats right.
paid keywords that cs targets:
again COMPUSHARE- i dont think this is a coincidence.
social metrics seem to suggest that social traffic is PREDOMINANTLY reddit and youtube driven.
it might also be interesting to you- my giveashare order number for example is 6 digits and starts with 14x,xxx- implying that there were 140k+ orders before me, if the order numbers are sequential , which they may well be as they sometimes are. This implies that at least 140k computershare accounts existed before end of September . now as /u/phazei pointed out giveashare could have easily started at a non zero number to make their order numbers look better – so should we ask who has the highest giveashare order number as well? i have 14x,xxx. this would imply that if it did start at zero, we have 140k computershare accounts created from that alone.
now that i think about it its less likely as it would imply almost a third of all accounts have gone through giveashare.
which if we look at giveashare metrics…
VERY GOOD improvements for 3 months worth of traffic. definitely affected by something…
look at the popular articles page – oh hii GME! to be honest this isnt conclusive but just shows that there has been engagemnt of the GME page on giveashare which we already know.
any giveashare people? whats the first 2 digits of your order number. FIRST 2 DIGITS ONLY – do not share anymore, as a full account number+ your last name can be used to find out where your order was sent.
this gives an average of 75k calls per day from fidelity. i remember another estimated 3000 calls per day – i cant find it – can someone comment it.
I will use the 3k calls per day estimate.
assuming 3k calls per day, that’s 15k new accounts per week or 60k per month. if mod11 is correct and there are only 60k accounts, it doesn’t add up – the numbers simply don’t add up.
if there were only 56k accounts in total then it would be a little tricky to take into account all other non gme accounts.
as /u/machiningeveryday pointed out here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/q50ad2/comment/hg2qspa/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3
computershare is a massive entity and has many other stocks / employer plans to take care of as well.
if we only had 56k accounts then each account holder would have to visit the site 70 times a month to make up that traffic. or vast majority of visitors don’t have an account at all – which is unlikely as the whole point of the site is to buy stock / check balance – which needs account number.
Tldr- looking at website data it strongly suggests we have way more than 56k accounts as 56k accounts would mean average ape visits the account 71 times a month to make up for 4million page views or a combination of with account apes vs non account apes do so but the ratio is unknown. Taking 516k cs account number and estimating total visits assuming near 100% of visitors have an account number- puts us at 4 visits per month which sounds a lot more reasonable