Actually, just one indication:
SOMA = The Federal Reserve System Open Market Account
For the entirety of 2023 they are projecting negative income, i.e. losses. The losses the FED incurs nowadays, at the end of 2022, are as follows:
My take from it is, whatever misery is imposed on us (on the people and the “economy”), for whatever reason, will continue until either a significant market event happens (aka a systemic failure), or until these graphs go back to the established order, positive projected net income.
From the first graph above, the position of the USA officials seems to be that there will be no resolution in 2023. So my expectation is for 2023 to be a year of misery.
Regardless of that, Happy New Year, everybody!
References:
- https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2022/06/01/what-if-the-federal-reserve-books-losses-because-of-its-quantitative-easing/amp/
- https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/national-deficit/
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fttA-rNRYG4
- https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/economy/federal-reserve-to-lend-additional-1-trillion-a-day-to-large-banks
- https://www.ftserussell.com/research/cmbs-and-fedis-there-crisis-brewing-office
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wr1eDcwB4iM