Cargo Vessel Comes Under Apparent Iranian Attack Near Oman, Crude Jumps, After IRGC Warned It Controls Hormuz Strait

Geopolitics.

Summary:

  • Iran tightens control over Hormuz: The IRGC says ships must obtain authorization to transit the strait or face enforcement action.
  • Shipping disruptions emerge after increased flows: A tanker near Oman was reportedly attacked, and several vessels turned back after Iranian warnings, sending oil prices higher.
  • Tehran seeks billions in transit fees: Iran wants to impose Hormuz passage charges that it says could generate up to $40 billion annually.
  • Rubio rejects the plan: The U.S. says Gulf states offer "zero support" for Iranian tolls and warns they would undermine freedom of navigation.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Yes 39% · No 62%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

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Tanker Attacked Off Oman Amid US-Iran Divergence Over Terms of Hormuz Reopening, Crude Jumps

A tanker appears to have come under (likely) Iranian attack close to the coast of Oman on Thursday. It seems that Iran is seeking to impose control, and its red lines as its military issues the following message: "Coordination with the IRGC Navy for passage through the Strait of Hormuz via Channel 16 is mandatory, and violator vessels will be dealt with."

Below is the initial UKMTO alert:

Crude jumps, also as Bloomberg reports that already "At least three ships, including two oil supertankers, appeared to turn around while attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz using a route that hugs Oman’s coastline."

Bloomberg continues: "It wasn’t immediately clear why the vessels turned around, but two maritime intelligence companies published broadcasts that purported to be from the Iranian navy instructing ships not to cross. Not all ships have turned around and some continued along the Oman route, according to tracking data compiled by Bloomberg."

This comes after there's been some optimism this week after the signing of the US-Iran MoU, as tanker traffic has clearly picked up. However, Tehran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority has been insistent that transit can't happen without express permission, and as Tehran seems to impose steep tolls under its protocol.

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Iran Seeking Beijing Approval for Toll Scheme

Despite Rubio's warning while meeting with GCC allies in Bahrain, Iran is planning to move forward on charging hefty fees for vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz under its protocol, which is to be enforced by the IRGC. What's more is that it's seeking Beijing's approval and help.

Iran’s chief negotiator and Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, asserted during a prior visit to Oman this week: "Everyone needs to know that management of the strait will never return to the way it was before."

According to fresh reporting in The Wall Street Journal:

Iran is pushing to make billions of dollars from the Strait of Hormuz as the regime positions itself to manage the global oil artery it severed at the start of the war. 

The Islamic Republic estimates that charging for security, safety and environmental services in the strait would bring in $40 billion a year in revenue for states involved, according to officials familiar with the matter. The idea, if implemented, would bring Tehran cash flow and control that it didn’t command before the war. 

The regime is looking to models around the world, including the Dardanelles, the officials said, where Turkey charges ships a tax known as the gold franc for passage to and from the Aegean Sea through the international waterway.

Rubio has just complained that such a scheme would unleash "chaos" and would spread "like a contagion" to other global shipping chokepoints. He has asserted that Washington sees this as a red line and won't allow the precedent to be established.

On the China angle, crucially, "To get buy-in, Tehran is pitching the idea to the wider Middle East and as far afield as Beijing, according to Iranian officials. It wants its Persian Gulf neighbors to be part of the agreement and share the revenue," sources said.

Iran clearly feels itself in control of negotiations, and so is flexing its maximal demands, as it knows that Trump came to the table to avoid serious rupture in global oil as US strategic reserves have dwindled and Americans would revolve against his little "excursion" in Iran.

Tehran senses weakness? A softening in tone from the Trump administration: 

Rubio from Bahrain: 'Zero' Gulf Support from Gulf States for Tolls, Fees

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has made some fresh Thursday remarks in Manama, Bahrain after his meeting with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) foreign ministers. "We had a very productive meeting," he acknowledged.

The US top diplomat emphasized that "zero support" from Gulf countries for tolls or fees on the Strait of Hormuz, in contradiction to Iran's official stance (and possibly in coordination with Oman, which has provoked US wrath).

Oman has remained ambiguous on the issue in its latest statements, no doubt not wishing to not further inflame Washington sentiment against the longtime southern Arab Gulf ally.

Oman, via its state news agency, has reaffirmed that it is ready to help restore maritime security and that it backs the MoU signed between the US and Tehran, also in accord with decisions made at the high-level Vance meeting in Switzerland at the start of the week. Rubio's main argument seemed to be the very bad precedent that a toll system extracted by Iran (and the IRGC) would set, warning that Iranian tolls on ships through Hormuz would only spread to other waterways, risking "total chaos".

"International waterways do not belong to any nation state. This is a foundational principle in the world today, without which the world would be in total chaos," he said at the GCC meeting. He added: 

"If in fact we accepted that you can charge money to use an international waterway because it happens to be near your territorial space, well then this will spread throughout the world like a contagion."

He stressed the the Trump administration is committed to a peace deal, but not "at any price". He explained: "While we want a deal, we don’t want a deal at any price. We want a deal that’s good, we want a deal that’s real, we want a deal that’s verifiable, and we want a deal that’s adhered to."

"We want to ensure... that there is no part of this deal that’s undertaken that in any way undermines the security, the stability, or the prosperity of any of our partners in the Gulf region," he said.

Rubio's Gulf tour has included the UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain, where he's given assurances that any broader US-Iran peace deal would not abandon Gulf allies' interests. Another notable statement from Rubio is his statement that a reconstruction fund for Iran was not discussed with Gulf countries. But this also remains high at the top of Tehran's wish list.

IRGC: Noncompliant Ships 'Will Be Dealt With'

As for the latest from Iran, the country's elite Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has warned against any crossings of the Strait of Hormuz without authorization, threatening that ships not complying "will be dealt with" as it criticized a new route through the waterway established under the auspices of Gulf countries and with UN coordination.

"The only authorized route for passage through the Strait of Hormuz is the route announced by the Islamic Republic of Iran,” the IRGC said Thursday.

So clearly despite the MoU framework still holding and producing a temporary peace, which has even seen more ships flowing through the waterway, major contradictory issues remain.

More Developments

Some more of the latest via Al Jazeera:

  • The US will not accept that Hormuz belongs to any nation state, Rubio said while meeting with Bahraini leaders in Manama. He also said that the US wants a deal that doesn’t undermine security and prosperity for itself nor its allies.
  • Bahrain’s ⁠Foreign ⁠Minister Abdullatif bin Rashid Al ⁠Zayani welcomed Oman’s announcement of a corridor for the ‌safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, as ⁠he chaired a GCC ⁠meeting during Rubio’s visit to the ‌country.
  • A Lebanese military source told Al Jazeera that Israeli forces remain deployed in all the areas they recently occupied, making the statement after the Reuters news agency cited a US State Department official stating that Israel had withdrawn from parts of the area.
  • There were reports of a drone strike in the front-line village of Kfar Tibnit on the outskirts of the city of Nabatieh in southern Lebanon, according to our correspondents on the ground.
  • Some ⁠57 ⁠ships carrying an estimated 1,100 seafarers have transited ⁠the Strait of Hormuz since June 23 ⁠under a UN evacuation plan launched this week, data from the ‌UN’s shipping agency showed.
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