The Tyrants Are Passing State Laws to Push CBDCs

CategoriesIssue 2023Q2, Site Updates_

From: https://tomrenz.substack.com/p/the-tyrants-are-passing-state-laws

by Mar 15, 2023 Share

Let me open this by apologizing. This article is going to get into the weeds a bit and it is less than exciting. That said, stick with me until the end and I’ll give you a solution you can fight for.

For those that are living under a rock (or that have more interesting things to do than follow monetary policy) CBDC stands for Central Bank Digital Currency and it, along with gene therapy jabs, stands as the greatest threat to freedom on the planet. Digital currency is completely trackable and completely controllable. This means that the government and any corporation with the proper access will be able to know exactly how you spend every digital penny of your money. It also means that the government (or possibly global governments or global corporations) would have the ability to control what you spend your money on. Spend too much on gas they take some of your money for emitting too many greenhouse gases. Want to buy a gun… forget it.

If you think this sounds terrible you are not alone, nearly no one wants this. That means it is quite literally politically impossible to legislate CBDC into existence at the moment. Despite that, the control available to the many tyrants at the WEF, CCP, etc. is too tempting to resist so they are doing everything possible to leverage their control over the crooks like Biden and the many ignorant elected officials in our government to make it a reality. So, the question is, how are they doing it?

If COVID taught us anything it was that an emergency, real or faked, facilitates a lot of things that would never happen otherwise. The tyrants know this and are in the process of creating financial emergencies that will allow them to argue that there is no alternative but to implement CBDCs. The Biden Administration is implementing policy after policy that devalues the American dollar by limiting Americas ability to mine its own resources or produce its own goods while printing endless money. This will (or more likely is) facilitate an economic collapse. Meanwhile, WEF/CCP partner groups like Black Rock and Vanguard are leveraging their positions as major stakeholders in small and midsized banks to force the banks to accept terrible ESG and other risky investments that will, when combined with the inflation/devalued dollar and scarce resources, result in their collapse. This is an obvious thing to anyone that truly understands the inner-workings of banking (I ran a credit union for a number of years, was a compliance expert, and was involved in a number of national-level groups/projects).

Along with the effort to collapse the dollar and our banking system, the tyrants are also pushing legislation that can allow CBDCs to exist legally and without competition. This is being done in a VERY sneaky way because of the massive political opposition to anything CBDC-related. At this point, the major focus is on passing state-level legislation – particularly in a number of key RED states. Bills are being pushed that appear innocuous but are written to create a check-mate situation when CBDCs come into play. That way these red states won’t be able to oppose it.

When it comes to who is behind the push to sneak CBDC legislation on the state level we need look no further than the Uniform Law Commission (the “ULC”… stinking lawyers). Here’s a link you can follow to see where this crew is pushing state law. The response from many lawmakers when people are questioning these bills is that it is conspiracy theory to suggest these UCC bills will facilitate CBDC. Here is a link to one of the authors of the bills telling you it is about CBDC (fast forward to about 46 or 47 minutes in); you should save a copy of this video quickly – I’m guessing it will disappear soon. You can find additional information here from the South Dakota Freedom Caucus (they did great work shining light on the bill Kristi Noem just vetoed – saving South Dakota).

The ULC is promoting bills that would change the UCC (Uniform Commercial Code) to ensure that states have state law that is prepared to deal with CBDC. These same bills would also ban any current forms of crypto like Bitcoin as a competitor for CBDC. These UCC changes reflect the state law changes to meet the goals laid out by the Fed (here’s an overview) and are fully laid out in this fun document.

Bills promoting these changes are pushing through hard red state such as Missouri (HB1165), Oklahoma (HB2776), Texas (SB2075), and Tennessee (SB479/HB640). They are also in a ton of other states and need to be stopped in all of them.

Let’s take an example from HB1165 in Missouri. I had the pleasure of reading this 103 page bill and can tell you it was physically painful to go through (which is why none of the elected officials will read it – they will just vote based on what the lobbyists or party leadership says). Understand that this is intentional. These CBDC bills are frequently being handed to Republican legislators who are told by leadership to file the bills. Because the bills are so complex and lengthy, most elected officials will not actually read them.

Within HB1165 (not to be confused with HB1169 which requires informed consent and which I support – despite RINO opposition), there are a quite a few changes to Missouri law. These important changes were quite expertly crafted to facilitate CBDC without actually talking about it so Republicans could be fooled into filing the bills even if they did read it. A great example is this new definition of “money” found on page 5:

“‘Money’ means a medium of exchange that is currently authorized or adopted by a domestic or foreign government. The term includes a monetary unit of account established by an intergovernmental organization or by agreement between two or more countries. The term does not include an electronic record that is a medium of exchange recorded and transferable in a system that existed and operated for the medium of exchange before the medium of exchange was authorized or adopted by the government.”

This language means that existing crypto currencies would not be eligible to be considered “money” by banks… a great way to make sure there will be no private competition for CBDC.

All this leads to the question, so what do we do? The easiest solution is to get a large number of grassroots to promote an amendment that bans CBDC in your state. If you think this is a conspiracy theory or your elected officials tell you it is simply ask him/her to amend their bill to include the following language and see what kind of response they get from the lobbyists or you get from the official:

  1. Nothing in this bill shall be construed to legalize, authorize, or recognize any sort of digital currency as money in Missouri.
  2. All banking and financial institutions in Missouri shall be required to recognize at least one physical currency as “money”. This physical currency must be treated as the primary form of money in the state and valued to ensure it is the preferred form of trade within the state. No bank or financial institution shall penalize anyone for the use of physical money in Missouri nor shall they provide any incentives for the use of any digital currency. Physical and digital money must be taxed at equal rates.
  3. Missouri recognizes the importance of the Fourth Amendment of the Bill of Rights and prohibits any currency from being recognized as “money” that can be tracked without knowledge of that tracking and without being able to identify who is responsible for such tracking by the owner of the money. Digital currency may be recognized as money in the state of Missouri only if it can be verified as impossible to track without a warrant by a minimum of three an independent experts.

    a.     Independent Expert means, for purposes of this section, an individual with the requisite expertise to evaluate the proposed money to meet the requirements of this section. Courts should construe this clause strongly in favor of ensuring high levels of expertise and independence.

  4. No currency shall be recognized or accepted as money in Missouri if that currency could possibly be controlled in any way remotely. For purposes of this section, controlled includes who or how this currency can be shared with or spent in any way. This prohibition on the control of currency would preserve the Fourth Amendment and should be construed broadly.
  5. If any other statutes conflict with anything in this section this section controls. If any part of this section is determined to be unconstitutional or conflicting with any other controlling law the rest of this section shall continue to be in force.

While stronger language could be used (and this should be modified for any given state), none of this language would cause a problem unless the real reason for the bill is to promote CBDCs so no one pushing the Republicans to sponsor these bills should object. If they do, that should be all you need to know.

The war on freedom is expanding and we have to stop CBDC, call your state legislature and say hell no to these banking laws that they are pushing. I can’t stress enough how critical this issue is, CBDC means game over! Between that and the COVID vaccines, all they have to do is whip up a new pandemic (they already have them created), and we lose everything.

Credit Suisse $CS has been bailed out

CategoriesIssue 2023Q2, Site Updates_

Credit Suisse got a bailout from their Swiss government earlier today. Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/15/investing/credit-suisse-shares-saudi-national-bank . But let’s not forget that their bailout has already happened: the US Fed bailed them out in October 2022, very recently. That particular bailout was called a “dollar liquidity swap” so as not to use the word “bailout”. Derivative plays take months and years, so the current situation should have been visible to the regulators for several years by now.

Apart from poor money management, banks engage in obscure, unreported gambling activities like bullet swaps, total return swaps, SFT’s (securities financing transactions, yes nobody knows what this is). A swap is an unreported, unregulated transaction between two parties. Only because it’s not in the news doesn’t mean it’s not happening. If you think that the only thing banks do is take your deposits and put them in treasuries (and SVB failed even at that) – make no mistake, banks engage in crazy derivative gambles. In the dark.

This ^ is a graph of a particular derivative gambling instrument, 1 year credit default swap for Credit Suisse. It is a gamble on Credit Suisse going bankrupt within a year.

The Panic Of 1907: How J.P. Morgan Took Over Wall Street

CategoriesIssue 2023Q2, Site Updates_

From https://www.gothamcenter.org/blog/the-panic-of-1907-how-jp-morgan-took-over-wall-street

By Richard A. Naclerio

One of the most influential shapers of New York City’s history is Wall Street. The economic, social, demographic, and political impact the banking industry has had on New York City is undeniable in its scope and power. However, Wall Street itself is influenced by men who have harnessed and bridled it throughout its textured history. The consolidation of financial power is almost always a harbinger for the rise or fall of New York’s future, and no event was more exemplary of this effect than the little-known Panic of 1907, and no man amassed so much power from it than J.P. Morgan.

J.P. Morgan

J.P. Morgan

The commonly known story of the Panic of 1907 is that in October of 1907 an attempt by F. Augustus Heinze, an overzealous Wall Street banker, to corner the copper market led to a run on many major banks. The effects of the run caused a panic that reverberated throughout Wall Street, New York City banks and ultimately, many of the US banking and manufacturing industries. At the height of the Panic, J.P. Morgan stepped in to aid the banking community and quell the massive drop in bank reserves and market collapse. He was touted by many Americans as a true patriot and selfless beacon of financial hope for the country. But, to those who rigidly examined his actions, he was a monster who fed off the demise of economic destruction.

In 1906, harbingers of the encroaching crisis went unnoticed. The US economy was fantastic, and threat of a panic was the last thing on the minds of Americans, especially New Yorkers. It could even be said that the reason for the crash was the fact that the market was too good the previous year. US credit was so strong in 1906 that an estimated sum of $500,000,000 was borrowed by Wall Street banks from European markets in order for corporations to seize opportunities of leveraged buyouts and mass consolidation throughout the year.

For example, The Union Pacific Railway, having received its shares of Northern Pacific and Great Northern in the Northern Securities liquidation, sold off a large chunk of them in June of 1906. This meant that Union Pacific had $55,968,000 in cash and money on call against $7,345,000 a year earlier. This sudden liquidity led to a massive acquisition period, borrowing $75,000,000 on its notes and buying $131,970,000 in railway stocks. Union Pacific’s activity, along with many others like it, put the country’s corporate structure into a dangerous position of debt-held capital, along with huge market consolidation.[1]

Agriculture was also doing well in previous years. Crops were strong and the whole country was enjoying prosperity, especially in the South and the West. Unemployment was very low, as manufacturers were on an industrial torrent, enabling them to pay very high wages. Everyone was happy. It is in these times when greed usually overtakes better judgment and disrupts what would undoubtedly be a time of sustained financial security. The forming of syndicates to underwrite the huge amount of new bond issues and the attempt to control the stock market under what became adverse conditions, led to the mass sale of securities to pay off these Himalayan European and Wall Street loans, as well as the margin calls of the market.[2] The commissions earned by these syndicates ranged from 2.5% to 10%, and J.P. Morgan and his sea of investment banks, trust companies, and railway and steel company interests were at the core of the bond, underwriting, and loan scramble.[3]

With increasing shares in decreasing markets, industrial monopolization, over-leveraged capital, debt, and other dark conditions, the Panic of 1907 began long before F. Augustus Heinze’s October run on copper, and as the ice began to crack under Wall Street, J.P. Morgan was under it waiting to attack. According to J.P. Morgan & Co.’s records, the Panic of 1907, which drew out over the last three weeks in October of that year proceeded as follows:

On October 17, 1907 there was a violent break in the United Copper and Consolidated Steamship Co.’s stock. F. Augustus Heinze, president of the Mercantile National Bank attempted to corner the copper market with Gross & Kleeberg as his brokers. C.W. Morse, head of Consolidated Steamship, was also the head of the National Bank of North America, and a director of the Mercantile National Bank.

That night, the New York Clearing House Committee decided that if Mercantile needed a bailout, it would aid the bank under the condition that the entire board resigns.

On October 21st the Clearing House Association denied aid to the failing Knickerbocker Trust Co., and the resignation of its president, Charles T. Barney was then announced.

On October 22nd the Knickerbocker Trust Co. closed its doors.

On October 23rd a run began on the Lincoln Trust Company dropping their deposits from $21,000,000 to $6,000,000.

On October 24th, J.P. Morgan invited fourteen banks to loan $23,550,000 at interest rates varying from 10% to a gargantuan 60% and renewed the next morning at 20%.[4]

On October 25th $1,000,000 was jointly loaned to the Lincoln Trust Co. by the First National Bank of New York, National City Bank of New York, and J.P. Morgan & Co., and the same was done for the Trust Company of America, including another $9,700,000 at 25% to 50% interest.

On October 29th a syndicate composed of J.P. Morgan, First National Bank, and National City Bank took for cash at par of $30,000,000.

On November 14th Charles T. Barney of the Knickerbocker Trust Co. committed suicide.

On November 21st the following members of Borough Bank and International Trust Co. were arrested: Howard Maxwell, William Gow, and Arthur D. Campbell.

On November 22nd US Treasury Secretary George B. Cortelyou announced the issue of $100,000,000 in Treasury Loan Certificates.

On November 26th Arthur D. Campbell committed suicide.

On January 21st, 1908 the Hamilton Bank resumed business.[5]

A total of $6,000,000 representing nineteen banks was loaned directly to Lincoln Trust and the Trust Co. of America. After that, another $10,000,000 was raised for more bailouts.

When the panic started, J.P. Morgan was in Richmond, Virginia. He was attending the annual Episcopal Conference and getting over a cold when he got the call from New York that something terrible had happened. He and his entourage of Bishop William Lawrence and Bishop Greer and others drove to Washington, and then took a train to Jersey City, and then it was off to Morgan’s offices in New York. The entire time, Morgan was seen with “no suggestion of care or anxiety on his part, indeed rather the contrary. He was in the best of spirits.” Later, upon arrival in Jersey City, he was heard, “singing lustily, some tune which nobody could recognize…”[6]

As the panic got underway, Morgan formed a committee to determine which institutions could be saved after the panic, and which would be sacrificed. The committee answered to three men; J.P. Morgan, George F. Baker (head of First National Bank of New York), and James Stillman (head of National City Bank of New York). At the end of countless hours of examination and committee recommendations, three banks were left off the list to save; the Hamilton Bank (which J.P. Morgan ended up taking over), the 12th Ward bank, and the Empire City Savings Bank — all three banks were in Harlem.[7] As Harlem was hit hard by the lack of attempts to aid the area, Brooklyn was hit even harder by the failure to carry out the intended aid. First National Bank of Brooklyn, Williamsburg Trust Company of Brooklyn, Borough Bank of Brooklyn, and the Jenkins Trust Company of Brooklyn all failed.[8]

naclerio_02a.jpg

Then the takeovers immediately began. J.P. Morgan swooped in and absorbed the Mercantile Trust, and six more trust companies and banks, including the two largest banks that were hit the hardest: The Trust Company of America and Lincoln Trust. Morgan’s Guarantee Trust and Manhattan Trust companies would control them with the Rothschild family US emissary, August Belmont, at the helm of the merger.[9] He promised Charles Barney that he would help to save the Knickerbocker Trust (one of the largest trust companies in the country, and competitor of his Bankers’ Trust Co.), but decided to pull the plug at the last minute. Soon after that Barney committed suicide.[10]

Banks in other cities began to fail. Banks in Providence, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh sought aid. Secretary Cortelyou released $25,000,000 of government money for the bailout and J.P. Morgan’s approximated private pool of about $30,000,000, included a $10,000,000 loan from John D. Rockefeller. Publicly, Morgan railed the working people of America for trying to rescue their own money from the teeth of Wall Street greed:

As I have already said, I cannot too strongly emphasize the importance of the people realizing that the greatest injury can be done to the present situation in thoughtless withdrawal of funds from banks and trust companies and to hoarding their cash in safe deposit vaults or elsewhere, thus withdrawing the supply of capital always needed in such emergencies as that which we have been confronted with during the past week.[11]

While J.P. Morgan was ordering the public to “keep cool heads” and he and his Wall Street cohort were charging massive interest rates on their bailout loans, it was payback time. Morgan called the collateral on the loans he gave to his old adversary, C.W. Morse. He used the collateralized bonds to acquire Morse’s Consolidated Steamship Company, which was his competitor in that sector as well, as Morgan owned the International Mercantile Marine Company — the parent company of the famous Titanic White Star Lines.

Along with the banking and marine industries, Morgan began to gobble up interest in hundreds of companies. One in particular set off more monopoly indicators in the public eye, and even in Washington, DC. The panic struck the Tennessee Coal & Iron Company as hard as it did many other major US companies. Like the trust companies, banks, and Consolidated Steamship, J.P. Morgan’s radar for easy prey located another victim.

Tennessee Coal and Iron’s stock was melting away. It was a direct competitor of Morgan’s US Steel Corporation. So, Morgan used a sinking fund of $30,000,000 of 5% bonds in US Steel to be given in exchange for TC&I stock on the basis points of eighty-four for the bonds in exchange for 100 in the stock. This way, whoever owned TC&I stock, now owned a smaller part of US Steel, and Morgan then owned both companies with US Steel stock even higher than it was before the buyout.

naclerio_04.jpg

The only problem for Morgan was that this was not exactly legal. This transaction came dangerously close to violating the Sherman Anti-Trust Law. E.H. Gary, H.C. Frick, and J.P. Morgan visited President Theodore Roosevelt to talk him into overlooking the monopolistic implications of the takeover. Their argument was one of proximity. The iron and steel plants of the companies had their own separate district territories. Therefore, they were not technically competitors, as they did not cater to a common market, and a union of these two corporations would then not be a monopolistic combination of capital ownership. President Roosevelt blessed the deal, and Morgan owned another one of his competitors (with estimated mineral reserves of 700,000,000 tons of iron ore and 2,000,000,000 tons of coal), while expanding the reach of US Steel and usurping valuable southern real estate at the same time.[12]

The Panic of 1907 was an anomaly. This dubiously unpredictable assault on New York City banks ended up becoming the catalyst for one of the largest cases of corporate consolidation in American history. This consolidation was so egregious that it was deemed a “Money Trust” by regulatory politicians. The questionable circumstances and outcomes of the Panic, and J.P. Morgan’s massive takeovers led to Louisiana Congressman Arsene Pujo’s Money Trust investigations and subsequent Sub-Committee on Banking and Currency Report in January of 1913. Through the “Money Trust Hearings” the Pujo Committee findings were astounding. They unanimously determined that a small cartel of financiers, namely J.P. Morgan and a few other of New York’s most powerful bankers, had gained consolidated control of numerous industries and monopolized them through the abuse of the public trust, mostly during and after the Panic of 1907.

The Pujo Committee Report found that Morgan, and a handful of similar goliaths of American and international banking and industry, had gained control of major manufacturing, transportation, mining, telecommunications, and financial markets throughout the United States. The report revealed that no less than eighteen different major financial corporations were under the complete control of a consortium led by J.P Morgan, George F. Baker, and James J. Stillman. Just these three men, personally, represented the control of over $2.1 billion through the resources of seven banks and trust companies: Banker’s Trust Co., Guaranty Trust Co., Astor Trust Co., the National Bank of Commerce, Liberty National Bank, Chase National Bank, and Farmer’s Loan & Trust Co. The report revealed that this handful of men held the New York Stock Exchange hostage, and attempted to evade interstate trade laws.[13]

The committee’s scathing report on the banking trade concluded that 341 officers of J.P. Morgan & Co. also sat on the boards of directors of 112 corporations with a market capitalization of $22.5 billion (the total capitalization of the New York Stock Exchange was then estimated at $26.5 billion). In other words, Morgan had influence or outright control over so many corporations’ boards of directors that they represented over four-fifths of the value of every corporation on the entire New York Stock Exchange.[14] Despite the sweeping investigation and the damning evidence the Pujo Committee compiled, there is no evidence that any of the men named in the Pujo Report were ever arrested, prosecuted, or fined for any crime, and yet no group or investigative committee had ever proven the Pujo Committee inaccurate.

There were many who even believed that the Panic of 1907 may have been premeditated and manufactured by the Wall Street elites to gain ultimate control over banking and industry in America. When testifying before the Committee on Rules, Congressman Charles Lindbergh Sr. made this striking protest in his speech:

The real purpose was to get a monetary commission, which would frame a proposition for amendments to our currency and banking laws, which would suit the Money Trust. The interests are now busy everywhere, educating the people in favor of the Aldrich plan. It is reported that a large sum of money has been raised for this purpose. Wall Street speculation brought on the Panic of 1907. The depositors’ funds were loaned to gamblers and anybody the Money Trust wanted to favor. Then when the depositors wanted their money, the banks did not have it. That made the panic.[15]

What is clear in the exploration of this history is that the first decade of the 20th century saw economic upheavals in New York City drastically impact not only industries and economies across the country and the rest of the world, but also the reality that a small handful of financiers wielded an incredible amount of power in orchestrating these upheavals.

Richard A. Naclerio is the author of The Federal Reserve and Its Founders: Money Politics and Power. He is a PhD candidate in American History at the CUNY Graduate Center and his area of interest is US Economic and Financial History. Rich is an adjunct instructor in the History Department at Iona College and his dissertation is entitled, Credit Rating Agencies and the Crash of 2008: This is Why We Can’t Have Nice Things.

[1] Alexander B. Noyes, Forty Years of American Finance (1865-1907), New York: 1909, 355-356

[2] These observations on the causes of the Panic of 1907 were written by William M. Kingsley in a July 1909 financial periodical of the time called, The Ticker and Investment Digest. Ironically, he was the Vice-President of the United States Trust Co. of New York City at the time of the panic.

[3] Charles W. Gertenberg, “The Underwriting of Securities by Syndicates,” Trust Companies Vol. 10 (June, 1913), 328-332

[4] Note that interest rates this high were completely illegal at the time. They were only accepted because of the much-needed influx of currency into the market during the Panic. Morgan and his Wall Street friends took full advantage of the vulnerability of the industry.

[5] Vincent Carosso Papers, The Morgan Library, [ARC 1214] Box 37: Morgan & Co. – Panic of 1907, File 2. Syndicate Book #5.

[6] Vincent Carosso Papers [ARC 1214] Box 37: Morgan & Co. – Panic of 1907, File 1: Lawrence, Bishop William. Memoir of John Pierpont Morgan (1837-1913), 32-33.

[7] J.P. Morgan Papers [ARC 1196] Box 18 Folders 1-4 (Clippings): Daily Herald, Rutland, Vermont. October 25, 1907.

[8] Robert F. Bruner and Sean D. Carr. The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market’s Perfect Storm (Hoboken, N.J: John Wiley & Sons, 2007).

[9] J.P. Morgan Papers [ARC 1196] Box 18 Folders 1-4 (Clippings): New York Press, November 6, 1907, 1-2.

[10] Groner, 215.

[11] J.P. Morgan Papers [ARC 1196] Box 18 Folders 1-4 (Clippings): The Sunday States, New Orleans, Louisiana. October 27, 1907, 1.

[12] The Commercial and Financial Chronicle November 9, 1907, 1177-1180.

[13] Pujo Committee Report, February 28, 1913, “Report of the Committee Appointed Pursuant to House Resolutions 429 and 504 To Investigate the Concentration of Control of Money and Credit;” Scribd.com. (Accessed October 15th, 2016).

[14] Bruner, 31-32.

[15] Congressman Charles Lindbergh testifying before the Committee on Rules, December 15, 1911. Modernhistoryproject.org. (Accessed: November 1, 2016).

The 2023 US Bank bailout: BTFP, Bank Term Funding Program

CategoriesGamestop_, Issue 2023Q2, Site Updates_

As you may have seen on the news, the 2008-style government bailout of banks has arrived. In contrast to the financial crisis of 2008, this time they are making the bailout look like not-bailout. The technical term they came up with is BTFP, Bank Term Funding Program, which is a bailout by another name.

They are also specifically avoiding admitting that we are already in a recession. All the media is controlled so you get silly headlines like “The weekend US officials hatched a plan to stave off a banking crisis” from Financial Times. Make no mistake: nothing was fixed in the global financial system since 2008, and the pandemic shock, when they printed infinite money into their own pockets, only made it so much worse.

A quick note on the relation between interest rates and treasury prices. When rates rise, treasury prices fall. That’s the design of the system. So when interest rates rise and you had $100 of treasuries in your pocket, now you have only $90. That’s how central banks are currently failing. And if you don’t raise the rates, then the currency becomes worthless from infinite money printing. In a way, the entire global financial system is a balance between money printing and raising rates.

The BTFP “not” bailout works by (1) guaranteeing uninsured deposits as if the are insured – which is illegal, and the working class will pay the bill, of course, and (2) swapping (“buying”) treasuries “at par”, as opposed to “mark to market”. This means that when the interest rates went up, and the value of treasures went wayyyy down, instead of banks failing, and depositors’ money disappearing, instead the US guvm’t will support banks as if they never lose value.

The bank assets can now be swapped (sold) to the guvm’t at par value (100%) rather than at, say, a $620B loss. Chase sits on a $0.6T holy crap! unrealized loss, from which would take them around 5 years to recover – they are essentially bankrupt, and every other bank is essentially in the same situation. Every financial institution has been destroyed by the raising interest rates. But wait!

What the US guvm’t just did, with SVB, is allow banks to never lose money, no matter what.

When you saw on the news a few months ago, the Australian central bank failing, the UK central bank failing – that was because when interest rates rise, treasuries’ value falls, making banks insolvent. With the new BTFP facility this will no longer happen.

I’m additionally worried that the US may favor US banks only, and let the rest of the world burn and other countries fail. You may see this as your currency deteriorating sharply against the dollar, and the dollar becoming very, very expensive. However, at the same time, the Fed has a history of secretly bailing of select foreign banks, e.g. central banks of France and Switzerland, recently. So the currency wars may become very political.

What do we, the working class, get as help from the government? That’s the neat part: nothing. We still have to bear the cost of inflation. Everything is more expensive (by 15-30% annually), and there is less of it. That is the cost of infinite money printing. Usually the cost would be, anyone holding treasuries sees their money disappear. But not anymore! The guvm’t will pretend that treasures never lose value, so banks don’t pay the cost of raising interest rates. But we do – dollar by dollar, we will pay more while getting less, while the owners of financial institutions continue making reckless, impossible bets to enrich themselves beyond imaginable, at our expense.

The financial system works in very technical ways, and most people don’t understand how it works. That’s why we still allow this robbery to continue. Maybe I’ve explained it poorly ^ above, but I only now myself realized that the BTFP facility disconnects inflation for the rich and inflation for the poor. It also upsets me that very few people are paying attention to the SVB bailout, and the huge consequences that may become of it. I’m angry and upset.

Bank Term Funding Program: The Not-A-Bailout Can Kicking Bailout

CategoriesGamestop_, Issue 2023Q2, Site Updates_

A fantastic writeup by u/ WhatCanIMakeToday :

The Federal Reserve has put for a new Policy Tool to “support American businesses and households by making additional funding available to eligible depository institutions to help assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all their depositors” make sure banks have enough cash to stay afloat… for now. [Federal Reserve]

How BTFP works

  • BTFP offers loans of up to 1 year to, basically, every financial institution they work with (“banks, savings associations, credit unions, and other eligible depository institutions”) .
  • Financial institutions put up collateral (“Treasuries, agency debt and mortgage-backed securities, and other qualifying assets”) to get cash.
  • This lets financial institutions get fast access to cash without needing to sell those securities in a fire sale that would crash markets. (“BTFP will be an additional source of liquidity against high-quality securities, eliminating an institution’s need to quickly sell those securities in times of stress.”)

The really interesting bit is BTFP values the collateral assets at par. (“These assets will be valued at par.”) Par value means full face value.

A bond selling at par is priced at 100% of face value. Par can also refer to a bond’s original issue value or its value upon redemption at maturity. [Wikipedia]

Current face refers to the current par value of a mortgage-backed security (MBS). [Investopedia: Current Face]

The Federal Reserve has an FAQ about this different valuation:

https://preview.redd.it/ok1lo6btyjna1.png?width=1235&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=af932c05788b888e1171f4935966346be6a9d16c

Normally, this collateral would be valued at market value (e.g., mark to market). However, this is a problem for many banks, like SVB, holding a lot of long term low interest rate debt. (Keep in mind that many fixed income assets are going to be low interest rate debt simply because interest rates have been low for a very long time!) The 1% bonds and MBSs everyone holds are paying very little compared to 3-5% alternatives after the Fed raised interest rates. This interest rate problem is why the current value of those low interest rate assets dropped. And, when banks like SVB needed to sell assets quick for cash, the value of those assets dropped even more.

BTFP is coming in to say the Federal Reserve will swap those qualifying low interest rate assets for full cash value (for up to a year). ??

How does BTFP compare to the 2008 TARP Bailout?

Technically, the Federal Reserve purchased toxic securities in 2008 [Wikipedia: TARP] which means the Fed paid cash to financial institutions for low interest rate MBS debt so that the Fed could hold them to maturity. This let all those MBS debt mature naturally and kept these low value assets off bank books so banks wouldn’t fail. [FRED: Assets: Securities Held Outright: Mortgage-Backed Securities (Wednesday Level)]

Technically, BTFP is more like a swap where the Fed exchanges cash for low interest rate assets at full face value (instead of an outright purchase). Within a year, the swap should be reversed. This gives banks a year to bolster their balance sheets. (HAHAHAHA Can you imagine banks actually doing this?.)

This is more of a technicality than a true difference.

If a bank goes under, the Fed would have given cash to the bank and held on to the low interest rate collateral. This is effectively same as purchasing the assets at face value (clearly overpaying current market value) — a Not-A-Bailout Bailout.

If a bank doesn’t go under, the assets for cash swap is just can kicking for a year. The Fed now temporarily holds assets that have a low market value (e.g., “Assets held under agreement to return”). The bank holds cash equivalent to the full face value of the asset which makes their balance sheet lookbetter to hopefully avoid a bank run, but that cash needs to go back to the Fed when the swap is over. The underlying problems are still there: the assets continue to have a low market value and, in a year or less, the swaps are unswapped putting the banks back into the same position they are in today. (But if withdrawals get too high, the bank no longer has cash to swap back so the bank goes under and we’re back to a Not-A-Bailout Bailout.)

Then the question is: how will interest rates change over the next year?

↗️ If the Fed keeps interest rates steady or going up, this interest rate problem gets worse for banks and more of these low interest rate assets become toxic, just like 2008, with more bank failures.

↘️ If the Fed lowers interest rates, these low interest rate assets regain market value BUT inflation increases. The can is kicked and problems grow bigger.

The Federal Reserve seeks to control inflation by influencing interest rates. When inflation is too high, the Federal Reserve typically raises interest rates to slow the economy and bring inflation down. When inflation is too low, the Federal Reserve typically lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy and move inflation higher.[Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland]

It is impossible for the Fed to fight inflation and keep banks solvent.

?? The third option, kicking cans, is clearly in play. BTFP sets up this 1 year swap for banks to bolster their balance sheet. But, a similar program has already been in use for more than a year: Overnight Reverse Repurchase (ON-RRP) Agreements currently above $2T every day.

The Fed has already been letting banks swap bad assets for good assets, overnight. Here’s my prior explanation of ON-RRP (from a year ago):

https://preview.redd.it/9zhgtewuyjna1.png?width=2330&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=e691166ba2cc1ec3a6097e041d56f04e0efd6a4b

All the peaks show up after Shit HappensTM which means the Overnight Reverse Repo number isn’t a leading indicator of bad shit happening. Instead, banks use the ON-RRP as a result of bad shit happening. So, we see that some Bad Shit Happened for banks in 2021Q1 which lines up pretty well with some idiosyncratic risk in the financial system.

From FRED: “A reverse repurchase agreement (known as reverse repo or RRP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Market Committee sells a security to an eligible counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies.”

Fed sells a security (Treasury or some kind of federally guaranteed debt) and agrees to buy it back the next day. Basically, this allows banks using RRP to park assets overnight in exchange for USA Guaranteed Securities. Treasuries we know are gold standard top shelf collateral. I imagine any USA Guaranteed Security gets the same treatment.

This RRP deal lets banks “polish turds” by trading in crappy assets on their books for Treasuries and other USA Guaranteed Securities, overnight. At the end of each day, the bank’s balance sheets “look good” with all these USA Guaranteed Securities. (Except, the balance sheets are probably shit because the next morning, they get swapped back. So they do the deal again the next day.)

Now, if that’s the right understanding… then when RRP usage is stable or decreasing, the banks are doing good at improving their balance sheet positions. Basically, if we see RRP dropping over time, it means banks are holding less turds that need polishing. But we’re seeing increases in RRP over time. This means the banks have more turds that need polishing.

If I’m right, I think RRP reflects the how big the shit pile is at the banks. And, if you look at which participant banks are using it, you can see which banks are the shit bag holders.

Now, for those of you who don’t like talking shit, I think it’s equally valid to think of it as bandaids. After “Bad Things Happen”, banks use the RRP facility as bandaids to get them through the tough times. What’s supposed to happen is that the banks heal their wounds and clean up their balance sheets. The problem we see now is RRP keeps going up. This means the banks are taking more damage and keep bleeding out. Despite the Fed having upped the bandage supply a couple times, the banks keep using up all the bandaids.

Since the global pandemic that auto mod won’t let me name, banks have been using ON-RRP to swap their assets on hand for Treasuries which they can use as gold standard top shelf collateral. Every night, banks swap swap assets with the Fed so the bank books look good. Every morning, they swap back and now the bank is in trouble. Lather, rinse, and repeat. Every day since March 2021.

Enter BTFP which lets banks swap worth-less (the so-called toxic assets in 2008) mark-to-market assets for cash because ON-RRP isn’t a big enough “turd polisher” and bandaid. And, let’s be realistic, a year long swap is just less paperwork than swapping every night for a year.

Banks have been dependent on ON-RRP to stay afloat and will be dependent on BTFP to keep going. The $2T+ ON-RRP usage shows us that, even with 0% reserve requirement [Federal Register], banks have dug a hole much deeper than $620B and the Federal Reserve is polishing turds and layering on more bandaids trying to keep it all from crashing.

We Don’t Talk About Moral Hazards

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers doesn’t want to talk about Moral Hazards (“it’s not a time for moral-hazard lectures“), which have been made significantly worse after the 2008 Bailout [Moral Hazard: The Long-Lasting Legacy of Bailouts], with Wall St effectively holding innovation and our economy hostage. Unless we let Wall St shift the burden of their losses to Main St taxpayers again:

… there will be “severe” consequences for the innovation sector of the US economy……very substantial consequences for Silicon Valley — and for the economy of the whole venture sector…[Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers on Bloomberg]

As taxpayers on Main St are expected to foot the bill, either directly through a bailout or indirectly through inflation, we absolutely should be talking about Bruno.

EDITS: Added formatting, images, and links because of automod

 

Silicon Valley Bank Was a Wall Street IPO Pipeline in Drag as a Federally-Insured Bank; FHLB of San Francisco Was Quietly Bailing It Out

CategoriesIssue 2023Q2, Site Updates_

If you want to genuinely understand why Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed and why Jerome Powell’s Fed led the effort yesterday to make sure $150 billion of the bank’s uninsured depositors’ money would be treated as FDIC insured and available today, you need to take a look at how the bank defined itself right up until it blew up on Friday. (That history is still available at the Internet Archives’ Wayback Machine at this link. Give the page time to load.)

Read the full story here, at the wonderful WallStreetOnParade resource: https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/03/silicon-valley-bank-was-a-wall-street-ipo-pipeline-in-drag-as-a-federally-insured-bank-fhlb-of-san-francisco-was-quietly-bailing-it-out/