Note: see this analysis for the analysis instead https://d15g8hc4183yn4.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/28191335/Critique-of-_Endgame-DD_-How-last-weeks-actions-all-come-together-to-one-specific-Date_-1.pdf
Foreword by u/Rensole
Even though all of this is based on data we have found, and that we have cross referenced this with multiple members. lease know that everything stated in here are nothing more than personal opinions.
You should under no circumstances invest only because we have come to certain conclusions. We personally invest because our DD and information we have found has led us to believe in this stock.
We like the stock!
But everyone should make their own choices when it comes to investing, and do their own research.
As for the date, we believe everything may happen on (or near) this day, but it’s also very likely that the hedge funds will try to kick the can down the road as we have seen time and time again.
And we realize that by publishing it here online in a public forum they can see it as well.
So if it doesn’t happen on this date don’t worry, the date is nothing more than a indication where we believe the data has led us to. It is by NO MEANS meant to be used as a prediction, it is merely what we believe, with all the publicly available data, is one of the most likely indications of date.
And as always, invest responsibly!
Do not put money in you can’t afford to lose.
Do your own research and cross reference everything and anything here, and if you believe this data is wrong or the conclusion is incorrect please post it, by having a public discourse we can get new ideas and have a fresh look on this.
And by saying that I’d like to hand the word over to u/heyitspixel
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I don’t even know how to start this. First of all, I want to add a really important disclaimer. The following DD presented is solely based on research, numbers and data available to the public. I tried to take every single factor out there into account. That doesn’t automatically mean, that all of the following has to become true. The following DD is what I THINK is going to happen. There is no guarantee and I am not taking any responsibility for any decisions people make after reading the DD. I let other people check my DD, double and triple read it myself, but there still might be some flaws in logic or errors. If you find any, CALL ME OUT on them! I will either correct or remove them, if there are any. As I said, multiple people proof read this, so there shouldn’t be any, but you never know. Now that we’ve got that sorted out, this is where the fun begins. Put your helmets on, we’re about to go to space.
We have to start somewhere, so let’s start at some recent events. The first one: The crazy price run-up and the preparation of an options chain on February 24th. What exactly happened?
THE RABBIT HOLE PART I:
To know what happened, it is really important to know, that Gamestop was on the short sale restriction (SSR) list that day. But how did GME get on the SSR in the first place? This is where it’s beginning to sound like a conspiracy theory or a fucking masterplan made up by other hedge funds in order to bait out Citadel/Melvin.
Let’s take a look at the Data:
On February 23rd GME opened at $44.97. Within the first few seconds GME reached its Day High of $46,23. GME also reached its Day Low at 9:50AM. So within 20 minutes after the market opened, GME reached its high and its low for the whole day!
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/history/
Nothing special, right? Wrong. The price drop to exactly $40 was created artificially by someone shorting 100,000 shares right at opening.
https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME
In addition to that, they set off a calculated sell and then closed their short position instantly after hitting the $40 mark. Buying back the shares to cover their position in addition to buying back in (propably by the same institution that shorted and sold off a couple of shares to drive the price down to $40) brought the price back to exactly $44,97 for a second. Notice anything? That is EXACTLY the opening price. So after that 35 minute span of shenanigans we were right back to the opening price and it was like nothing happened to the stock.
But something did happen. Something really important. That quick sell-off and shorting brought the price down by 10 %. That got GME on the SSR for the next day.
Conclusion: Someone got the price down by 10 % within a couple of minutes but the same someone got it instantly back up after that, making it seem, that their solely goal was to get GME on the SSR for the next day while trying to avoid a panic sell off by dropping the price too low. And that is really important now!
THE RABBIT HOLE PART II:
As I stated in my post on February 24th, I found out, that someone with large amounts of money set up the GME Stock for a Gamma Squeeze. How you may ask? I am gonna quote my own post here, so I don’t have to repeat myself:
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MY POST FROM 24THFEB:
So, we have a few hints that institutions jumped in for some fun.
• There are lot of buy orders with 3 to 4 decimals being made, driving the price up bit by bit. That kind of trading is not possible for retail. (https://imgur.com/a/26y2B8Z)
• Someone prepared Call-Chains to set up GME for a Gamma Squeeze, possibly starting the short squeeze (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GME/options?p=GME) (Also :https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/lq5tnh/gme_a_whale_is_setting_up_a_gamma_squeeze_this/)
• Hedgies shorted GME with 200,000 Shares. That didn’t get the price back down to <$50. So what did they do? They shorted it again with 100,000 Shares. That eventually dropped the price to <$50 again. (https://iborrowdesk.com/report/GME) EDIT: They just shorted another 100,000! That makes 400,000 shares sold short today.
EDIT: ANOTHER FIND: Because GME is on the SSR today, they are not allowed to short on downticks. When GME hit its 2nd low after reaching the $50 mark, someone shorted XRT with 100,000 shares on a downtick, thus working around the SSR and trying to destroy upward momentum again: https://iborrowdesk.com/report/XRT. Spoiler: It didn’t work.
Guess which price would start the call chain? Correct: $50. So, Citadel and Friends and Institutions are battling around the $50 mark right now. Citadel and Friends don’t want a gamma squeeze to take place again, so they keep shorting to keep it under $50. And someone with shitloads of money keeps buying and trying to drive the price above $50 before close, so the call chain starts rolling.
What supports me in my theory is: After the price dropped <$50, there was a battle around the $50 for quite some time, after that, the price has been going sideways for hours. Both sides are probably waiting for the other side to do something, in order to counter that with either more shorts, or a sudden jump in buy-volume. That’s why no one is doing anything right now, because only the closing price and that we stay around $50 till then in order to close above $50 counts.
EDIT: ANOTHER HINT TO FURTHER SUPPORT MY THEORY: The $50 mark battle had insane volume. After HF shorted GME twice and UI battled around that price, the volume died down to 10 – 20 % of what it was around that mark (https://imgur.com/a/s5lY3Hr). For me it looks like they just tested each other to see how far the other party will go in order to reach their goal and are now waiting for what I wrote above.
TL;DR: Hedgies vs. unknown Institutions (UI). UI set everything up for a gamma squeeze and need the price to close above $50. HF know and don’t want that to happen and keep shorting the shit out of GME to keep it below $50. Both sides waiting for the other one to do something. Battle will start shortly before the market closes. Just a theory, no advice, ape hoping for banana ???
PSA: GME IS RESTRICTED FROM SHORTING ONLY ON DOWNTICKS! THEY ARE ALLOWED TO SHORT ON UPTICKS. (Short Sale Restriction List: ftp.nyxdata.com/NYSEGroupSSRCircuitBreakers/NYSEGroupSSRCircuitBreakers_2021/NYSEGroupSSRCircuitBreakers_202102/NYSEGroupSSRCircuitBreakers20210223.xls) Thanks to u/ HYPERLINK “https://www.reddit.com/u/designerinsider/”designerinsider for providing the list!
EDIT: IT DOES NOT MATTER FOR US IF WE CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW $50! Just wanted to clarify. If we close above $50, that would be a huge win and an almost certain catalyst for a Gamma Squeeze, if they exercise their options. But what if we close below $50? Nothing changes. Diamonds Hands are really important atm and it’s only a matter of time until that bubble pops.
EDIT2: FURTHER HINT SUPPORTING MY THEORY: THEY JUST BORROWED 1,000,000 (YES, 1 MILLION!) ADDITIONAL SHARES TO SHORT. THEY ARE PREPARING!
EDIT4: Seems like Institutions are baiting out the Hedgies right now, we broke $50 again! BUT BE CAREFUL! Hedgies borrowed 1,000,000 Shares in order to short the stock again and again. Our allies are propably trying to bait out those borrowed shares at the moment and the price will dip a few times and have huge volatility. If we don’t have any huge dips today, that means the Hedgies didn’t short their borrowed shares yet. Keep that in mind for the following days! They might accept their fate today and let it close above $50, but try to interrupt the upward momentum when those Calls become ITM and get exercised.
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Conclusion: An Institution (probably another hedge fund) set up an options chain ranging from $50 into the high hundreds. Well knowing that it will work, because Gamestop was only allowed to be shorted on upticks, because it was on the SSR that day! Why was it on the SSR? The same someone made sure it got there the day before. Because people were not selling GME and the volume was really low until then, they prepared to buy in shortly before the market closed, because it was easier to reach their price target with less capital when the volume is as low as it was that day. Citadel and Friends didn’t even try to fight back that evening. They probably knew who was behind it and knew what kind of money they are fighting against (Remember that battle mid-day at the $50 mark). They tested each other at that moment.
THE RABBIT HOLE PART III:
Okay, now we know that someone planned all this over the span of a week and the plan was executed perfectly working in, whoever planned its, favor. But why is someone planning all this and spending that much money on a gamma squeeze and then just forgets about it and doesn’t care what the price is the days after? Because now we get to the real shit that sounds like something out of a conspiracy or movie. Spoiler: Whoever set up the Gamma Squeeze set it up as a bait for Citadel and never cared about it actually happening or not. They just wanted it to make it look like they want a Gamma Squeeze to happen. Here is why:
On the 26th of February I posted an important post regarding the illegal naked shorting with counterfeit shares. Here is a link to the post (we’re at 4500 words already, so I am just gonna link it): https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lsvl8k/really_long_dd_and_analysis_what_happened/
On February 25th, there was a short volume of AT LEAST 33,000,000 to 51,000,000 Shares (highest report). Those were naked shorts being done with counterfeit shares. Brief explanation: Naked Short — This is an invention of the securities industry that is a license to create counterfeit shares. In the context of this document, a share created that has the effect of increasing the number of shares that are in the market place beyond the number issued by the company, is considered counterfeit. This is not a legal conclusion, since some shares we consider counterfeit are legal based upon today’s rules. The alleged justification for naked shorting is to insure an orderly and smooth market, but all too often it is used to create a virtually unlimited supply of counterfeit shares, which leads to widespread stock manipulation – the lynchpin of this massive fraud.
Returning to our example, everything is the same except the part about borrowing the share from someone else’s account: There is no borrowed share — instead a new one is created by either the broker dealer or the DTC. Without a borrowed share behind the short sale, a naked short is really a counterfeit share.
So, naked shorting is not always illegal. It is legal IF the market makers are able to deliver the shorted shares within a given time period. And now it gets really juicy.
Fails–to–Deliver — The process of creating shares via naked shorting creates an obvious imbalance in the market as the sell side is artificially increased with naked short shares or more accurately, counterfeit shares. Time limits are imposed that dictate how long the sold share can be naked. For a stock market investor or trader, that time limit is three days. According to SEC rules, if the broker dealer has not located a share to borrow, they are supposed to take cash in the short account and purchase a share in the open market. This is called a “buy–in,” and it is supposed to maintain the total number of shares in the market place equal to the number of shares the company has issued. (http://counterfeitingstock.com/CounterfeitingStock.html#:~:text=In%20the%20context%20of%20this,the%20company%2C%20is%20considered%20counterfeit)
Market makers (such as Citadel) have special exemptions from the rules: they are allowed to carry a naked short for up to twenty–one days before they have to borrow a share. When the share is not borrowed in the allotted time and a buy–in does not occur, and they rarely do, the naked short becomes a fail–to–deliver (of the borrowed share).
So, what we now know is, there was huge short volume on the 25th February, the biggest in the history of GME (let’s take the middle of the lowest and the highest report and we have a short volume of 42,000,000). Why? In order to stop the Gamma Rocket from lifting off and delaying the real short squeeze. Citadel and Friends naked shorted GME with about 33,000,000 to 51,000,000 shares that don’t exist, additional to the already existing short positions they have.
IN SHORT: Whoever planned all that knew, that Citadel and Friends were going to MASSIVELY overshort GME and it was prepared and planned to happen on that exact day. Whoever planned it, trapped Citadel and Friends into a corner of poor despair and desperation. But why on THAT EXACT DATE you may ask yourself now?
THE RABBIT HOLE PART IV: ENDGAME
Let’s get to the final. Why was all this important? Why the bait setup? Why at that exact date? And to which date is everything pointing to?
What else do we need to know before we get to the juicy stuff? There are about 63 ETFs containing GME, that are massively shorted as well as the underlying GME stock itself. We only need to know about the one ETF that has almost 10 % of their Portfolio being GME for this. The biggest one there is: XRT. Why is XRT so interesting?
As of 25th of February XRT GME holdings increased from 3% yesterday to 10% today. (https://www.etfchannel.com/symbol/xrt/)
As of 26th of February, XRT is also the MOST HEAVILY SHORTED ETF IN THE WORLD with almost 200 % of their shares being sold short. (https://www.etfchannel.com/type/most-shorted-etfs/)
What does this tell us? XRT is the prime ETF used by Citadel and Friends to hide their real short positions from the public.
But how does shorting an ETF work? It’s simple. Let’s say XRT has 100 different stocks, Citadel and Friends are shorting 99 of them, then covering on those right away. The one stock they aren’t covering for is GME. Gamestop makes up a large percentage the other stocks in the ETF, due to its high share price.
So, when is it going to happen? AT AROUND(!)FRIDAY, MARCH 19th 2021. Evidence to support that date and everything coming together:
First, we have to take a look at the basis of the current situation.
AS OF THE 23RD OF FEBRUARY, THE SHORT INTEREST WAS CALCULATED TO BE AT LEAST 430 %. THAT NUMBER BECOMES MUCH MUCH HIGHER IF WE TAKE THE SHORT ACTIVITY FROM 25TH AND 24TH INTO ACCOUNT!
23rdFeb Calculation:
Insider Ownership: 23,704,787
Institutions: 151,000,000
Funds: 40,000,000
Retail: 38,595,000
Total Owned: 253,299,787
Total Outstanding: 69,746,960
Percentage of ownership to outstanding: 363.17%
Estimated Synthetic Shares: 183,552,827
FINRA Short % of Float: 78.46%
Finviz Float: 50,650,000
Reported Shares Shorted: 35,538,624
Total Estimated Short (Synthetic + Reported)
219,091,451
Percentage of Shorts to the Float: 432.56%
Evidence to support March 19th 2021:
1. AI Prediction starts around that Date:
The AI Prediction was done with all the data available at that point in time (The CSV file was provided by https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/gme). New calculations actually show a much higher price (30,000,000, but I am quoting the more realistic one).
2. Remember the naked short activity on February 24th and 25th?(https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lsvl8k/really_long_dd_and_analysis_what_happened/) That’s 33 – 51 million more purchases by? You guessed it. Friday March 19th from 25th February’s naked shorting alone and 12 million from 24th to be purchased one day prior, because of the exemption for market makers. “Market makers (such as Citadel) have special exemptions from the rules: they are allowed to carry a naked short for up to twenty–one days before they have to borrow a share. When the share is not borrowed in the allotted time and a buy–in does not occur, and they rarely do, the naked short becomes a fail–to–deliver (of the borrowed share).”
3. March 19th is XRT rebalance day. XRT releases dividends every 3 months. Last one was December 21st,2020. Estimated next payout is around March 20th. By this time the shorts NEED to cover their GME shorts through XRT. (https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/funds-and-etfs/xrt/dividend-history)
Why do the shorts need to cover by then? (Quoting: u/Gamerofnhl) YES, the shorts can avoid covering by directly paying XRT the amount of money due for dividends, BUT shareholders are forced by law to pay normal income tax rates (as high as 39.6%, especially for the type of people investing in ETFs, this is a HUGE PROBLEM) on those dividends coming from the shorts, compared to the range of 0%-20% (income based). If you’re a millionaire with money in XRT, you’re not expecting to pay obscene amounts on your dividend returns, these type of investors don’t constantly make sure their Investment is not loaning out shares to shorts with no plan on returning them before dividend payment. Normal dividends that are payed out directly (NOT BY SHORTS) usually save 10% on taxes. https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/substitute-payment-in-lieu-of-dividends.aspx
XRT wouldn’t force shareholders to pay that tax rate just because one stock out of many was shorted to oblivion. Their inbox would get destroyed come tax season. XRT is making money on the interest by loaning out GME shares. If GME goes up XRT makes more money when shorts cover, and XRT also goes up. Everyone wins except for hedge funds. I wouldn’t be surprised if the institutions controlling XRT force the squeeze themselves.
4. Massive option chains (on various Stocks) set up for 3/19 with volume so big, that only large Institutions who know what’s coming set it up.
As of February 26th, XRT has 18,000 volume on 80$ Puts for 3/19. For comparison: The volume for 3/26 80$ puts is 142.
XRT Puts for 3/19:
• 5,558 @ $45
• 14,394 @ $50
• 7,633 @ $55
• 29,787 @ $60
• 14,138 @ $65
• 32,919 @ $70
• 8,063 @ $75
• 17,853 @ $80
Further comparisons:
XRT Puts for 2/26: 2314 Puts at any strike on the chain combined.
XRT Puts for 3/5: 2139 Puts at any strike on the chain combined.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XRT/options?date=1616112000&p=XRT
Spy has puts at an insane volume (tens of thousands), for? 3/19.
GameStop has more than ten thousand of 800$ calls for? 3/19.
VIX (SPY Volatility Index) has insane volume on calls two days prior (tens of thousands, even 100k) (Brief explanation to what the VIX is: VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market’s expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options.)
(Quoting u/ThatGuyOnTheReddits) If you look at AAPL and it’s option chain… You see that all put options have very low open interest for 2/26/19, 3/5/21, and 3/12/21…
On 3/19/21 Put interest EXPLODES in contract numbers and volume! Only one week later, it goes back down to almost zero.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/options?p=AAPL&date=1616112000
Facebook is the same.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FB/options?p=FB&date=1616112000
Coca Cola is the same.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/KO/options?p=KO&date=1616112000
Starbucks is the same.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SBUX/options?p=SBUX&date=1616112000
Johnson and Johnson is the same.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JNJ/options?p=JNJ&date=1616112000
And there are many many more. Why the hell are investors in Facebook, Coca Cola, Starbucks, and JnJ all hedging against the exact same date? What would JNJ and Starbucks have to do with GameStop?
Market makers are hedging what they own with puts to save the value of their shares they currently own in case the market implodes.
I’m marking my calendar… 3/19/21 is lining up perfectly to be the day the shit truly hits the fan for the market.
5. Quadruple Witching Day.
What Is Quadruple Witching? (https://tackletrading.com/what-is-quadruple-witching/)
Quadruple witching refers to a date on which stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously.
While stock options contracts and index options expire on the third Friday of every month, all four asset classes expire simultaneously on the third Friday of March (Which day was it again were talking about? Oh, right, Friday March 19th, the third Friday of the month), June, September, and December. Quadruple witching days witness heavy trading volume, in part, due to the offsetting of existing futures and options contracts that are profitable.(https://www.investopedia.com/terms/q/quadruplewitching.asp)
(Quoting u/Scfi4444) Quadruple witching is similar to the triple witching dates, when three out of the four markets expire at the same time, or double witching, when two markets out of the four markets expire at the same time. You should expect all kinds of fuckery on a quad witching date. GME mooning and crashing the rest of the market would certainly be appropriate for a quad witching date.
6. Gamestop Q4 Earnings are released 4 Business Days after March 19th, that’ll be another catalyst to keep the flame going for a few days. Because Q4 is the the quarter, where retail makes their most revenue. https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/earnings#:~:text=Earnings%20announcement*%20for%20GME%3A%20Mar%2025%2C%202021 HYPERLINK “https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/earnings”& HYPERLINK “https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/gme/earnings”text=According%20to%20Zacks%20Investment%20Research,quarter%20last%20year%20was%20%241.27.
7. Market makers were so sure of GameStop’s bankruptcy, that they wrote lots of naked call options. A call option is a contract with the OPTION to buy a stock at a certain price in the future. Call options cost money (a premium) and they’re pretty cheap. The contract specifies a strike price (at what stock price can you execute the contract) and is always higher than the current stock price.
Because of the massive violence inflicted on GME stock with the shorting, the sellers of the contracts were also sure that contracts with strike prices higher than let’s say $20 COULD never be executed. They became greedy and reckless and decided to sell more contracts than they actually owned stock. In fact, they sold MILLIONS OF SHARES WORTH of contracts for which they don’t and didn’t own stock.
Now that the price rising, EVERY FRIDAY, millions worth of stock on contract is going in the money.
This means that the buyer of the contract is able to request the stock for that contract from the seller. If you never had the stock to begin with, THATS A PROBLEM. If you sold this contract naked, now you have to go in the market to buy it AT ANY PRICE or risk massive fines and sanctions.
And at what day does the shit hit the fan again? Oh, right, a Friday. But not any day. It’s Friday, March 19th 2021.
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Final words before we conclude all the information: I hope you read the disclaimer, as well as the DD. I thank all of the people I quoted and the ones that helped me check the sources, proof read and used their time, to help everyone out there understand what’s going on here.
MY Conclusion: The squeeze is inevitable. It got delayed many times, but no matter what data you look at, the outcome is always the same, everything points to this specific date. Also: Other Hedge funds smell blood. They can take out some of their biggest competitors as well as making billions and billions of dollars in the process. There couldn’t be a bigger win win situation for them, than this one. I think the squeeze is starting a few days, maybe even a week prior to March 19th. I think that it’ll start March 15th and build up all the way to March 19th, were the real rocket takes off. How long is it going to last? I don’t know, no one does. But I think it’s going to last for at least one week. Of course, it’s going to get more and more expensive to buy in over time, so you don’t want to miss out. As always: Buy and Hodl. While you’re reading this exact sentence, I am going offline for a few days. I won’t be posting anything new (except I make a huge discovery that will change everything). I am going to spend time with my family now, I am preparing for my dog, I am catching up on work and enjoying life. I will try to read comments and incomming messages though. I love you all. Keep your heads up, ??. We will meet again.
TL;DR I like the stock. pixel out.
From: https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/ltua0n/endgame_dd_how_last_weeks_actions_all_come/