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The Strait of Hormuz
The U.S. president can move markets with a sentence. He can hint at talks, hint at peace, hint at imminent success, and each of those hints can put downward pressure on oil. Tehran can threaten, but Trump has the larger megaphone, the larger navy, and the stronger balance sheet.
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Europe says it is getting off the needle of Russian oil and gas. And it risks getting impaled by an aspen stake, which [the US] is actively sharpening for the Europeans.