Thoughts on MOASS as a Low Probability Event

CategoriesGamestop., GME

I was recently re-reading Dave Lauer’s jungle AMA, and the community’s reaction to it. The reaction was very negative, because Dave clearly stated that he thinks MOASS probably won’t happen, and all the reasons why he thinks that. He enumerated the doubts he had, and then received a flurry of attacks accusing him of FUD.

Now, the point of this post is not to go over all of Dave’s points and argue them one by one. He has some valid concerns, but he’s drawing the wrong conclusion…


Here’s a list of some of the unlikely things that have happened to get us here:

  • DFV and the beginning of the GME saga….if one lone genius didn’t recognize the pattern of abusive short selling that was going on, and figure out how to turn it back on the short sellers, none of us would be here.
  • The existence and survival of Superstonk itself. This community has faced many existential threats, and has survived them all. Many of you don’t remember or weren’t here for the craziness last summer. The red queen, renshill, and runic glory almost sunk us. The constant assault from bots, shills, and saboteurs has been a battle from the start, and somehow we’re still here.
  • The DRS movement is utterly remarkable. The odds of it gaining and maintaining the momentum it has over the past 10 months is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY. Especially because we’re not an organized group, there’s no central authority telling apes what to do, and there was no reason for this movement to take off the way it has.
  • The vision and actions of Ryan Cohen. Where else on earth would you find a guy like this? Any other chairmen out there playing infinite-dimensional chess on a daily basis? The challenges RC faces, and the courage he has in finding creative solutions to them, is unlike anything any executive has ever done before.
  • Ever hear of a Black Swan?

If MOASS were guaranteed to happen, then it wouldn’t be a big play, now would it?

Likelihood and inevitability are not the same thing. Something can be unlikely…and still be inevitable. MOASS is unlikely. MOASS is inevitable.

We will have EARNED our tendies because we’re retarded enough to believe in a low probability event happening.

We are the ones who read the writing on the Wall.



Edit: Oh crap, this is kinda taking off. I gotta go to work, so please just be civil in here, okay? Don’t make a mess while I’m gone. Be respectful of other’s opinions. Be excellent to each other.

Edit 2: Nooo, stop, I just wrote this while I was pooping. Didn’t think this through. Apologies to u/dlauer for throwing him under the bus, that was not my intention. My message is that everything is fucking fine, everyone needs to take a deep breath, be zen, and stay calm. Be patient and compassionate. Solve problems TOGETHER. Listen to Dave’s points carefully, don’t attack him for saying them, and then calmly do research on how to solve them. BE EVERYTHING THAT OUR FOES ARE NOT! If we are to get our tendies and inherit the responsibility of wealth, we cannot become what we hate. Love one another 🙏💖🕊️

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