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Another indicator, called "credit spread."

^ Another indicator, called "credit spread." When people panic, when recession hits, yield on junk becomes much higher than yield on treasuries. In time of panic, the credit spread widens, blue line (junk yield) goes up, purple line (treasury yield) goes down. We are not in panic mode yet.
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The Peak Prosperity's Chris Martenson talks about Peak Oil

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You have to get burned at some point, to be successful... When you are making money you are actually not learning anything.